Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,935$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(0.248 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 65.9)}}\) (asimptote \(111.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,273$ on 2020-06-03

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,733$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(808 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,194.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12,194.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $673$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(138 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{602.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(602.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,842$ on 2020-06-03

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,495$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(58 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,246.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(9.51 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 59.7)}}\) (asimptote \(112.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,928$ on 2020-06-03

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,525$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(466 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,217.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(315,217.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $792$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(18.9 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,555.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 103.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,555.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,051$ on 2020-06-03

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,615$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(502 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{347,690.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(347,690.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,088$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(83.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,558.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 63.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,558.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,177$ on 2020-06-03

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $477$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(23.9 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{479.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(479.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-03

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $234$ on 2020-06-03

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,902$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(31.6 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,672.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,672.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(0.64 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 63.4)}}\) (asimptote \(25.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,081$ on 2020-06-03

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,306$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,026.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,026.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,094$ on 2020-06-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 92%
Morocco recovered 74%
Chad recovered 59%
Sierra Leone recovered 16%
Algeria recovered 10%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $961$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(372 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{914.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(914.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(72.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-06-03

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,922$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,137.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,137.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $206$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(69.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{195.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 20.7)}}\) (asimptote \(195.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $850$ on 2020-06-03

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $820$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(60.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{850.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(850.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(18 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65.0}{1 + 10^{-0.094 (t - 13.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $164$ on 2020-06-03

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $909$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(55.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,095.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,095.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.82 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 21.6)}}\) (asimptote \(49.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $371$ on 2020-06-03